Starting with how my last predictions fared:
Arithon did get put in a magic box by the Koriathain! Easy prediction, but I’ll take the win.
Instead of being let out to fight the wraiths, he was only allowed to live until he defeated them all. I missed that. Also him losing his memories. Great dynamic for the book. Very surprised that the threat of the wraiths has been defeated. That’s been a through line since book 1. Dying to know more about Marak and the wraiths, but with the discorporate sorcerors back it seems we might never learn.
I assumed Lysaer would still be leading the True Sect. Very interesting dynamic there. Can’t wait to see that play out in Destiny’s Conflict.
On to my predictions for Destiny’s Conflict:
The major conflict this arc seems to be Havish vs. the True Sect. I think Lysaer’s story will be about retaining enough control over himself and the True Sect to reduce needless deaths. Arithon’s story will be about reclaiming his memories and finding his place in the new world, but that doesn’t tie him directly to the Havish/True Sect conflict. He’s in Havish, but Havish might not want him. While he’s in Havish, Havish doesn’t get Fellowship support. It’s probably best for Lysaer and the people of Havish if Arithon leaves Havish and the conflict. In fact, that does enough to fix the conflict that I’m certain he won’t be able to leave or everything gets solved too easily. I suspect the logic will be that if he leaves the Koriathain can get him too easily, and he’s under vow not to die. While the Koriathain have free reign, I don’t think the war ends well. So, something must be done.
Arithon seems unlikely to try to assassinate Selidie Prime, but we have prophecies to suggest I’m wrong. We know Elaira has a knife for that express purpose. Perhaps Arithon will attempt to intercede and make her forgive his crime, but be forced to kill her. If he doesn’t kill her directly, I can imagine many situations in which Lirenda is granted any amount of free will and Selidie dies by her hand. The flaw in the Great Waystone looms large in my mind. It seems early in the series for Morriel/Selidie to be defeated, but I continue to miss when major plot points will fall. With greater emphasis on Koriathain use of Necromantic practice, it might be time. Perhaps we’ll see Lirenda as usurper Prime, but with Koriathain knowledge forever diminished. If memory serves, Morriel did kill Selidie in Rathain. That too could give our crown prince some leverage.
The next thing that looms large in my mind is this: what sets up the final book? I can’t believe that Destiny’s Conflict ends with a neat bow. Heading into the final book there must be something crazy to drive the grand finale. If the Koriathain are diminished, the True Sect lose their war, and all the wraiths are truly gone, we have none of the necessary impetus. So: the Paravians are coming back. With Kathtairr beginning to hold life again, Athera might be able to support the Paravians again. The flaws brought on by the mistwraiths could be offset by finally curing Kathtairr. In fact, I wonder if Kathtairr is our clue to the ending of the series. How, if the Paravians return, will a humanity who has become hostile to them and lived for generations in a world without them adapt? Simply go somewhere else… Clearly Athera can survive with a wasteland continent. If it gets settled by humans that’s still better than the poisoned wreck of a continent it was before.
So, for Destiny’s Conflict, the locked in predictions: Arithon gets all his memories back. Selidie dies, Lirenda takes over the Koriathain. Lysaer defuses the aggression of the True Sect, although I’m vague beyond that. The Paravians come back at the very end of the book.